"The Situation Remains Threatening."
- 7.05.2025, 13:51
Russian military exercises in Belarus could pose a potential threat to Ukraine and Europe.
This September, Russia, together with Belarus, plans to hold joint strategic exercises Zapad-2025. The stated purpose of these maneuvers is to improve defense capabilities, to practice operational interaction between the armed forces of the two countries and to test modern command and communication systems.
Ukraine sees in them a new danger, because the last such maneuvers, held jointly with Belarus in 2021 with the participation of about 200 thousand troops, were later regarded by experts as part of Moscow's preparations for a full-scale invasion. What's behind the 2025 maneuvers - dealt korrespondent.net.
Strike units
Every four years Russia holds its military exercises West. This year, various combat scenarios are planned during the military maneuvers, in particular possible situations arising in the current conditions of tension between the states of the so-called Western bloc and the countries within the zone of influence of the Russian Federation and Belarus.
According to the Ukrainian military, preparations for the exercises are already underway in Belarus. Significant contingents are being mobilized, modern equipment and strike units are being deployed.
The maneuvers will also include training of rapid reaction forces, intelligence and logistics services. Officially, 13,000 troops will be involved.
The training phase focuses not only on practicing standard defensive and offensive operations, but also on testing systems of coordination and command interaction in fast-paced scenarios - typical of modern warfare.
The active phase of the exercise is scheduled to run from September 12 to 16, 2025.
A cover-up again?
According to Ukrainian experts and military officials, the exercise could serve as a cover to create a strike force to invade Ukraine or simulate the seizure of territories in Poland or the Baltic states. Also Russia can use these maneuvers for a new wave of aggression from the territory of Belarus.
"Look at Belarus - this summer Russia is preparing something there, hiding behind military exercises. That's how its new attacks usually start. But where to this time? I don't know. Ukraine? Lithuania? Poland? God forbid! But we should all be ready. All our institutions are open to cooperation," commented President Vladimir Zelensky.
Today no strike groups have been recorded on the border with Belarus, but the situation remains threatening. Ukrainian intelligence closely monitors the movement of Russian units on the territory of Belarus.
"Although this direction remains threatening for us, no Russian grouping has yet been formed or is being formed near our border on the Belarusian side. However, the exercises announced by Belarus and Russia, some of which will take place on Belarusian territory and may involve Russian units, pose a risk to Ukraine, and the threat level will grow during this period," said a spokesman for Ukraine's State Border Guard Service Andrii Demchenko.
The border service assures that Ukraine will be informed in advance of any movements of Russian troops into Belarus.
"NATO is stronger than Russia"
Besides Ukraine, Poland is watching the maneuvers of the Russians and Belarusians. Warsaw has officially said it is alarmed by the exercises in Belarus.
Poland's Defense Ministry announced that the country and its allies will respond "appropriately" to future joint Russian-Belarusian military exercises in Belarus. That response will include "large Polish and NATO exercises in Poland."
"Let's also remember that last year we held the largest NATO exercise in history, involving about 100,000 soldiers," said Polish Deputy Defense Minister Cesarius Tomczyk.
"NATO is stronger than Russia," he added.