"Lukashenko Will Fall The Next Day Or So."
- 30.05.2025, 16:59
Even the Russians do not see it as a strong military partner.
Lukashenko's regime, being the Kremlin's main ally, from the very beginning of the invasion, actually became an accomplice of the aggression - providing the territory of Belarus for the attack on Ukraine. However, the question of Minsk's direct participation in the war remains open.
The possibility of such a development was discussed by military analyst Sky News Michael Clarke.
"I've always maintained that if Putin falls, Lukashenko will fall the next day or so. So Belarus is an integral part of the process, but will it send its army abroad? Probably and almost certainly not," he says.
Clark considers the Belarusian Armed Forces to be ineffective. Although the official number is about 50,000 military personnel, no more than 15,000 are actually combat-ready, and even then with a low level of training and poor equipment.
In the expert's opinion, Belarus is unlikely to be able to significantly change the situation on the front - even the Russians do not see it as a strong military partner. The main role is likely to be reduced to providing territory for maneuvers or diversionary actions.
Situation on the border with Belarus
In late April, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky said that Russia could be preparing a new offensive from the territory of Belarus already this summer under the guise of military exercises. He noted that Moscow has already repeatedly launched its attacks under the pretext of exercises. The potential direction of the strike is still unknown - both Ukraine and NATO countries, such as Lithuania or Poland, may be under threat.
Military analyst Dmitri Snegirev noted in a commentary for "Focus" that Russia is preparing a large-scale exercise "West-2025" in Belarus, which may indicate preparations for the expansion of military operations in the northern direction, particularly toward Chernigov region, as well as pressure on Ukraine and Europe due to the possibility of creating a land corridor to Kaliningrad. The likelihood of an invasion from Belarus depends on the position of China, which is not interested in escalation, while Russia's main efforts are focused on Donbass. Provocations in the north could be a diversionary maneuver, while sanctions and the difficult situation in Russia are forcing the Kremlin to seek quick results, as a long war is very costly for it.
Recently, Russia resumed using Belarusian airspace for reconnaissance in order to prepare cruise missile strikes on Ukraine. On Tuesday, May 27, the media reported that a Soviet Il-20 VKS complex reconnaissance military plane was spotted in Belarus, probably conducting reconnaissance of air defense radar stations in the western regions of Ukraine.
Analyst emphasizes that Belarus has no military potential that could significantly influence the course of the war on Russia's side.