Oleksandr Kovalenko: Russian Occupiers Have Moved To Motorcycles For A Reason

• 20.05.2025, 15:47

RF is stockpiling tanks.

Russia is amassing forces on the front lines for a new offensive in Ukraine. "Putin will try to take any land he can get, all the way to the outskirts of Kiev," a U.S. official told CNN.

How realistic is this? Military observer of the group "Information Resistance" Alexander Kovalenko gave his assessment of what is happening on the front to the site Charter97.org:

- It is likely for two reasons. First, the situation will depend on whether there will be a ceasefire in Ukraine. The thing is that if suddenly (although I absolutely do not believe in it) a truce is established, Russia will lose less personnel and equipment in the course of hostilities, losses will be reduced to almost zero, but at the same time its military-industrial complex will continue to work and mobilization will continue.

Then, in a certain perspective, for example, in a year, Russia will be able to have 1 million 200 thousand personnel of its troops. Now it has about 650 thousand ground troops in the war zone in Ukraine, and in a year, let's say, it will be more than a million.

And here's the question: will they keep the soldiers on maintenance or send them back into the meat grinder? It is the same with equipment: during this year they will be able to significantly restore the combat effectiveness of units, their equipment complement - through repair, production, restoration of the Soviet heritage and so on.

That is, in a year they will have enough equipment to provide two fronts at once - both Ukrainian and European. Therefore, the threat is quite great.

But there is also a second scenario, which few people talk about and rarely mention. Russia is now moving to a large-scale summer offensive in Ukraine, and the main goal of this offensive is to reach major cities such as Konstantinovka, Seversk, Borovaya, Kupyansk and to cover Pokrovsk on the flanks.

The goal of all this is to be able to conduct urban battles by the fall-winter period where equipment does not play a key role. Where infantry units, assault groups, artillery and aviation are important, and, of course, FPV drones, which have recently been actively used.

In the summer period, Russian troops will operate mainly with motorcycle units. Now Russian troops are equipped with motorcycles, quad bikes and buggies at the level of one unit of personnel - one motorcycle.

They proceed from this calculation, and the entire summer campaign will be held in this mode.

The question arises: where are the tanks, where are the armored vehicles? And this is now being saved, there is a total saving of tanks and armored vehicles. Of course, they will be used, but not in such quantity as it was, for example, in 2024, but about 3-4 times less.

And these summer and autumn months - say, 3-4-5 months, half a year - will allow Russia to still accumulate mechanized, heavily armored equipment in plus, unlike 2023 and 2024, when they simply lost more equipment than they produced, restored and repaired.

Therefore there is a real threat that Russia is already now accumulating a serious mechanized heavy armored component, while conducting active combat operations in Ukraine.

And already, let's say, by 2026 they will have enough forces and equipment to conduct an all-armed operation against small European countries - Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, partially Poland, with a breakthrough along the Suvalka corridor to the Kaliningrad region.

- Is this possible only closer to 2026? Or earlier

- By 2026. Because starting something like this now is suicide. They can't afford to do anything now, because they are entirely tied up in the war in Ukraine and can't fully prepare the strike groups that are needed, for example, to capture Estonia or to break through the Suvalki corridor.

- They simply don't have such resources now. But if there is a truce, they will have more than enough resources in six months or a year. In the second scenario, it will be a little bit longer in time.

And it must be said that in the second scenario it will be necessary to carry out a general mobilization - not some partial, informal mobilization, but a general mobilization in order to provide enough human resources.