Polish Presidential Election: Much More At Stake

• 18.05.2025, 13:40

The winner will probably be decided in the second round.

Poland is holding the first round of presidential elections on Sunday, May 18. Polish voters will decide not only who will become the country's next president - left-liberal politician Rafal Trzaskowski or national-conservative Karol Nawrocki. Much more is at stake - the outcome of the election will determine whether the pro-European center-left government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk can overcome the resistance that is run from the presidential palace and has paralyzed the cabinet since Tusk took office a year and a half ago, writes DW.

The Polish head of state does not have the same power as French, Russian or American presidents, but he has far more powers than, for example, the German president, who performs mainly representative and protocol functions.

With veto power, Poland's president, who is directly elected, can block legislative initiatives by the government. He is also commander-in-chief of the armed forces, can influence foreign policy and has the right to submit his own bills to parliament.

Unfulfilled hopes for reform in Poland

When the Donald Tusk-led Civic Coalition won the Sejm elections in December 2023, ending the eight-year rule of Jaroslaw Kaczynski's national-conservative Jaroslaw Kaczynski Law and Justice (PiS) party, many Poles had high hopes for rapid democratic change in the country.

In his election campaign, Tusk promised to restore the rule of law, liberalize abortion laws and expand gay rights. "Civic Coalition" also wanted to reform state media and prosecute politicians suspected of corruption and abuse of power.

It soon became clear, however, that most of the relevant initiatives were blocked due to the opposition of President Andrzej Duda, a former PiS member. Duda actively used his veto power or sent government bills to the Constitutional Court, which is dominated by national-conservative supporters.

As a result, after a year and a half in office, the Tusk cabinet's domestic political achievements look rather modest. As a consequence, disillusionment and discontent are growing across the country - including among the electorate of the ruling parties.

Tusk has a lot at stake in this election

"Presidential palace or death. Tusk knows that everything depends on the outcome of this battle," wrote Polish Newsweek publicist Jacek Gadek after the start of the election campaign last fall.

So the prime minister has sent a popular colleague from the right-liberal Civic Platform party, Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, to fight for votes. He ran in the presidential election five years ago, losing to Duda in the second round by a narrow margin of 48.97% to 51.03%.

Despite his relatively young age for a politician by Polish standards, the 53-year-old Trzaskowski has already had quite a long career. He has been a member of the European Parliament, headed the Ministry of Administration and Digitalization and served as state secretary and deputy foreign minister for European affairs. And since 2018 he has been in charge in the Polish capital.

Warsaw Mayor Trzaskowski leads in opinion polls

Rafal Trzaskowski belongs to the left wing of Tusk's Civic Platform. Thus, he has ordered the removal of crosses in offices in the capital's city hall and favors a liberal abortion law that provides for the termination of pregnancies up to the 12th week. The mayor of Warsaw - he is one of the few Polish politicians defending the EU's "green" climate policy. Days before the election, Trzaskowski is leading in opinion polls, gaining about 35%, although the gap from his pursuers has narrowed in recent weeks.

His biggest rival is Karol Nawrocki. He is a 42-year-old historian from Gdansk who heads the Institute of National Remembrance (INP). PiS leader Kaczynski is believed to have nominated the non-partisan right-wing nationalist Nawrocki as a "citizens' candidate" for president. The bet was made that the historian would attract conservative voters who are not members of PiS to his side because he is not considered a party functionary.

Nawrocki is supported by Trump and Simion

But this calculation does not seem to be paying off so far - support for Karol Nawrocki, for whom more than 20% are going to vote, is lower than for PiS itself because even many party members do not know their candidate. A number of journalistic investigations contain allegations that Nawrocki had connections in the criminal world. Shortly before the election, he was embroiled in a scandal - opponents accused the head of the INP of fraud with a municipal apartment.

In election rallies, Navrotsky spoke out against immigrants, the "green" course of the EU and Brussels as a whole. As well as demanding limited aid to Ukraine and creating an image of an enemy from the FRG, assuring that he would not be "Germany's lackey and valet." PiS has long accused Tusk of being a "German agent."

Karol Nawrocki's campaign team used its good contacts with Republicans in the United States to present a powerful trump card last week: Nawrocki was received in the Oval Office of the White House by American President Donald Trump and had his picture taken with him. "You will win," Trump reportedly told Navrotski.

The winner of the first round of Romania's presidential election, the head of the far-right Alliance for the Unification of Romanians (AOR) George Simion, in turn traveled to Poland to help his Polish confederate. At a rally in the city of Zabrze on Tuesday, May 13, both politicians said they wanted to build a "Europe of nations." "We will not allow the European Union to centralize us and turn Poland and Romania into administrative districts (of the EU. - Ed.)," Navrotsky stressed.

The far-right presidential candidate's chances are slim

For some time it seemed that Slavomir Mentzen, the candidate of the far-right Confederation of Freedom and Independence (CFI) party, might pose a threat to Karol Nawrocki. In several polls in March 2025, Mentzen, a 38-year-old tax consultant and businessman, was even ahead of him. Since then, however, the KCN representative's rating has dropped to just under 12 percent. He has been traveling around Poland since last fall and boasts 340 campaign appearances. Mentzen's position on social networks is particularly strong - he has 1.6 million followers on TikTok.

The program of the far-right candidate contains sharp criticism of the current political situation, while he is dissatisfied mainly with the health care and pension system in Poland, and with migration policy and the "green" course in the EU. In addition, the Polish far-right candidate favors the right to bear arms and a ban on abortion - even after rape. Such radical slogans, according to observers, especially attract young people - Mentzen's campaign rallies are disproportionately attended by school-aged teenagers.

Mentzen blames Kaczynski's PiS and Tusk's Civic Platform for all the country's problems and speaks negatively about the "duopoly" - the dominance of these two politicians and their parties. This opinion is shared by many of the 13 presidential candidates running in the current election.

Polish president will probably be elected in a second round

It is true that the rivalry between Tusk and Kaczynski has characterized Poland's history over the past 20 years. PiS and Civic Platform, succeeding each other in power, have ruled all this time, while not much space is left for other political forces.

Unless something unforeseen happens, it will take a runoff to reveal the winner of the presidential election, where Trzaskowski and Nawrocki are likely to emerge. Sociologists say Trzaskowski has a better chance in this confrontation, but he cannot be certain of victory. Will he be able to mobilize the voters of the other parties in the ruling coalition? Who will Mentzen's supporters back in the second round? It looks like Prime Minister Tusk will face tense hours until the last vote is counted.